《區域全面經濟夥伴協定》（RCEP）1月1日起生效，RCEP的啟動，可以刺激中國經濟的表現，特別是在中國政府強調內外「雙循環」重要性的時候。
經過8年共32輪談判和討論，由15個成員國組成的RCEP，於2020年11月15日簽署。2022年1月1日，RCEP在文萊、柬埔寨、老撾、新加坡、泰國、越南、中國、日本、紐西蘭和澳洲10個簽署國生效 ，南韓國將於2月1日加入。馬來西亞、印尼、菲律賓和緬甸等國將在完成國內程序後全面參與RCEP。
為地區和全球經濟注入強大動力
RCEP被形容為最大的貿易集團，佔全球GDP的30%，預料推動地區內的貿易額升高約420億美元。所有參與RCEP的國家總人口為22.7億，最終目標是所有成員國實現90%以上貨物貿易零關稅。
中國政府的海關統計數據顯示，2021年前11個月，中國對RCEP其他14個成員國進出口總值，佔中國外貿總值的31%。
東盟與中國的貿易關係仍然非常重要，雙方貿易總額30年來增長了85倍。從中國的角度來看，東盟在「一帶一路」倡議中發揮着至關重要的作用，尤其是在中國─老撾鐵路於2021年12月建成後。甚至東盟秘書處也承認，RCEP 將促進區域貿易和投資，推動區域經濟在新冠變種病毒疫情下恢復和增長。
促進技術創新產業現代化
RCEP對區內的中小企業尤為重要，可以刺激電子商務，促進它們參與國際貿易。RCEP可以刺激成員國提高工業生產標準，例如，東南亞的電子產業將更加高科技化，而不是依靠勞動密集型模式，而服務貿易和創新技術領域將在區域經濟一體化進程中進一步現代化。
日本、南韓和中國作為東亞3個國家首次參加亞太地區的區域貿易組織。自由貿易發展促成的自由化，讓這3個東亞國家共同受益。由於中國和南韓分別是日本的第一和第三大貿易夥伴，東亞3國加入RCEP，能夠並且將在Omicron變種病毒的疫情中，共同促進經濟復甦。日本媒體估計，RCEP將在短期內能夠幫助日本增加5.5%出口額。受新冠疫情影響較嚴重的日本汽車業，將能夠受惠於RCEP，因為其供應鏈和需求量可以分別得到鞏固和提振。
南韓對RCEP成員國的出口佔其出口量的一半。韓國汽車工業、汽車零部件業和鋼鐵工業將能夠從零關稅中受益，特別是在韓國汽車產業中的安全帶和安全汽袋行業。由於印尼、泰國和菲律賓將對這些安全裝置徵收零關稅，預計韓國將迅速從RCEP中受益。
經濟實用主義克服意識形態分歧
目前，北韓在區域經濟一體化方面仍是一個相對封閉的經濟體。不過，如果北韓要實現經濟和國際貿易自由化，考慮加入RCEP是有可能的。畢竟，RCEP包括中國、越南、老撾和緬甸等亞洲社會主義國家。如果社會主義國家能夠在經濟相互依存和互惠互利的時代加入RCEP，那麼北韓的任何進一步經濟現代化，都可能促使平壤考慮最終加入RCEP。 經濟實用主義最終有望戰勝經濟自給自足和步步為營的意識形態。
印度在2019年選擇不加入RCEP，是出於其戰略考慮及擔憂可能對印度工農業造成衝擊。印度政界也有人擔心，一旦加入RCEP，印度將會被認為在經濟和政治上加強與中國聯繫。儘管如此，印度仍將作為觀察員參加RCEP會議。希望印度的貿易政策制定者和政治領導人能夠重新考慮從長遠來看加入RCEP的好處。可以說，在亞太地區經濟相互依存和自由化的時代，那些未加入RCEP的國家正在錯失通過零關稅安排擴大出口的黃金機會。
香港轉口貿易受惠中國加入RCEP
儘管香港不是RCEP的成員國，但據估計，香港的轉口貿易將受惠於中國參與RCEP。預料香港的出口將增長8%──預計這一增長將直接或間接受益於中國參與RCEP。
香港除了作為國際金融和貨幣中心的角色外，中國仍將香港視為人民幣國際化的主要平台（RCEP可以加速人民幣國際化進程）。因此，未來幾年，國家很可能會幫助香港加入RCEP。事實上，香港政府正試圖與RCEP成員國聯絡，試圖在加入這個龐大貿易集團的過程中展開談判。
RCEP成員國貿易量巨大，RCEP內容覆蓋面廣（從傳統貿易產品到知識產權和電子商務），經濟開放程度（包括關稅和政府採購）都將受益。如果香港參與 RCEP 可能成為現實，那麼香港將大大受惠。香港已與RCEP的13個成員國簽署《自由貿易協定》；2020年，香港與這些國家的貿易額達7700億美元，佔全港貿易總額的73%。
RCEP啟動後，內地城市已陸續出具了第一批各類產品的產地證書。1月1日，中國貿促部門頒發了158張證書，涉及12個省市的69家企業。廣州市貿易部門幫助當地企業準備了所有行政文件，包括信息登記、產品文件和產品原產地證明。其他內地省市貿易主管部門正忙於辦理產地證，包括浙江、徐州、深圳等地。
所有這些行政程序都是必要的，可以促進各省市按照RCEP規則和規定，將其產品國際化。
區域經濟一體化和相互依存明顯可以令成員國國內的行政和經濟現代化，實現各方共贏。
改善兩岸關係 台灣亦能得益
由於台北和北京之間的特殊政治環境，台灣作為重要的東亞小虎，未能加入RCEP。有大陸觀察人士指出，台灣當局必須改善兩岸關係，因為RCEP的啟動和運作已經「挑戰」到台灣經濟。目前，台灣對RCEP成員國的出口約70%是免稅的，但仍有30%的產品要面臨更高的關稅。
然而，在激烈的區域競爭和區域經濟一體化的時代，台灣經濟仍然保持活躍、韌性和適應性。在新冠疫情持續之際，台灣首階段的經濟復蘇，或許就是鞏固與東南亞國家現有的貿易夥伴關係，同時逐步和有效地改善與中國大陸的關係。事實上，2010年9月中國大陸與台灣簽署的《海峽兩岸經濟合作框架協議》（ECFA）通過減少63億美元的關稅，使台灣在經濟上受惠。如果是這樣，台灣若能加入RCEP，肯定會在經濟上受益，儘管政治障礙依然存在。
總之，RCEP的生效，標誌着亞太地區經濟一體化和經濟相互依存新時代的開始。理想的情況下，所有其他亞洲國家，包括北韓和印度，都可以並且將加入這個龐大的經濟集團，而不管意識形態和政治差異如何。香港肯定會因加入RCEP而受益，台灣也一樣。雖然香港參與RCEP很容易得到國家的祝福，然而，由於兩岸關係持續緊張，台灣加入RCEP在政治上的難度要大得多。
RCEP and Regional Economic Integration and Interdependence
On January 1, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) began to operate, and its inception can stimulate the performance of China’s economy, especially at a time when the Chinese government has emphasized the importance of dual – internal and external – circulations.
After 32 rounds of negotiations and discussion within eight years, RCEP composed of 15 member states was signed on November 15, 2020. On January 1, 2022, RCEP became effective for 10 signatory states, including Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, China, Japan, New Zealand and Australia. South Korea will join soon on February 1. Other states like Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Myanmar will complete their domestic approval first prior to their full participation in the trade organization.
RCEP is described as the largest trade bloc occupying 30 percent of the GDP in the world, benefiting exports and imports that amount to US$42 billion. All the countries involved in RCEP have a total population of 2.27 billion people. Ninety percent or above of the trade products involving all the member states are going to enjoy zero tariffs.
The customs statistics of the Chinese government have shown that, in the first eleven months in 2021, China’s imports and exports involving all the other 14 RCEP member states accounted for 31 percent of the mainland’s external trade.
ASEAN has remained very important to China’s trade relations; both sides have been expanding eighty-five times in their total trade volumes. From China’s perspective, ASEAN is playing a crucial role in its Belt and Road Initiative, especially as the China-Laos railway was completed in December 2021. Even the ASEAN secretariat admitted that RCEP is going to boost regional trade and investment, propelling economic development, recovery and growth amid the spread of the new variant of Covid-19.
RCEP is particularly important to small and medium enterprises in the region, stimulating e-commerce and promoting their participation in international trade. RCEP can stimulate member states to elevate the standards of their industrial production. For instance, the electronic industry in Southeast Asia is going to be more high-tech rather than relying on labor intensive mode, while the service trade and innovative technological sectors will have to modernize further in the process of regional economic integration.
Japan, South Korea and China as the three East Asian states are participating in a regional trade organization in the Asia-Pacific region for the first time. The liberalization push in free trade development benefits the three East Asian states collectively and individually. Since China and South Korea are Japan’s number 1 and number 3 trade partner respectively, the participation of the three East Asian states in RCEP can and will stimulate mutual economic recovery amid the new spread of Omicron. The Japanese media estimated that RCEP can and will help Japan boost its exports by 5.5 percent in the short run. Japan’s automobile industry, which has been deeply affected by the emergence of Covid-19, can and will benefit from RCEP as its supply chain and the demand can be consolidated and boosted respectively.
South Korea’s exports to RCEP member states are occupying half of its exports. The South Korean automobile industry, the spare parts of vehicles, and its steel industry can and will benefit from zero tariffs, especially in the areas of the safety belts and safety bags produced by the Korean automobile industry. As Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines are going to have zero tariffs on these safety devises, South Korea is expected to benefit economically from RCEP quickly.
At this moment, North Korea remains a relatively closed economy in terms of regional economic integration; nevertheless, if North Korea is going to liberalize its economy and international trade, its consideration of participating in RCEP will be a likelihood. After all, RCEP embraces other Asian socialist states such as China, Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar. If socialist states can join RCEP in the era of economic interdependence and mutual benefits, any further economic modernization in North Korea would perhaps propel Pyongyang to consider its eventual participation in RCEP. Economic pragmatism may eventually and hopefully prevail over the ideology of economic self-sufficiency and cautiousness.
India’s reluctance to join RCEP in 2019 was due to its strategic calculations and concerns about the possible shocks to the Indian agricultural sector. There were also concerns in the Indian political arena that, by joining RCEP, the Indian relations with China would be economically and politically enhanced. Still, India will be an observer participating in RCEP meetings. Hopefully, the trade policymakers and political leaders in India would reconsider the benefits of joining RCEP in the long run. Arguably, in the era of economic interdependence and liberalization in the Asia-Pacific region, those states that do not join RCEP are missing the golden opportunity of expanding their exports through the zero-tariff arrangement.
Although Hong Kong is not a member state of RCEP, its re-exports are estimated to benefit from China’s participation in the regional trade bloc. It is expected that Hong Kong’s exports will be boosted by 8 percent – a predicted boost benefiting directly or indirectly from China’s participation in RCEP.
China is still seeing Hong Kong as a main platform for its Renminbi internationalization (RCEP can accelerate the process of Renminbi internationalization), apart from the city’s role as an international financial and monetary center. As such, the motherland will likely help Hong Kong to join RCEP in the coming years. In fact, the Hong Kong government is trying to liaise with the member states of RCEP, attempting to start negotiations in the process of joining the huge trade bloc. The tremendous size of the trade volumes involving RCEP member states, the extensive content coverage of RCEP (ranging from traditional trade products to intellectual property rights and e-commerce), and the degree of economic openness (embracing customs tax and government procurement) would benefit Hong Kong tremendously if the city’s participation in RCEP would be a realistic possibility. Hong Kong has already signed free trade agreements with 13 member states that are affiliated with RCEP; in 2020, Hong Kong’s trade volume with them amounted to US$770 billion, occupying 73 percent of the city’s total trade amount.
Immediately after RCEP’s inception, mainland cities have already produced the first batch of certificates on various products’ manufacturing origins. On January 1, the Chinese trade promotion authorities issued 158 certificates, involving 69 enterprises in 12 provinces and cities. The Guangzhou trade authorities helped the local enterprises to prepare all administrative documents, including informational registration, product documentation and the certification of products’ manufacturing origins. Other trade authorities in mainland provinces and cities are busy in dealing with the certificates of manufacturing origins, including Zhejiang, Xuzhou and Shenzhen.
All these administrative procedures are necessary and can stimulate all provinces and cities to internationalize their products in accordance with the RCEP rules and regulations.
Regional economic integration and interdependence can obviously trigger the member states’ domestic administrative and economic modernization, creating a win-win situation for all of them.
One important East Asian tiger, namely Taiwan, cannot join RCEP due to the special political circumstances between Taipei and Beijing. Some mainland observers have pointed out that the Taiwan authorities must improve cross-Strait relations, for RCEP’s inception and operation have already “challenged” Taiwan’s economy. At present, about 70 percent of Taiwan’s exports to the member states affiliated with RCEP are exempted from tax, but still 30 percent of its products have to face higher customs tax. However, Taiwan’s economy remains buoyant, resilient and adaptative amid the era of intense regional competition and regional economic integration. Perhaps the first stage of Taiwan’s economic recovery amid the persistence of Covid-19 is to consolidate its existing trade partnerships with Southeast Asian states, while gradually and ideally improving its relations with mainland China. In fact, the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement signed between mainland China and Taiwan in September 2010 has benefited Taiwan economically by reducing customs tax that amount to US$6.3 billion. If so, Taiwan would surely benefit economically if it could join RCEP. Yet, political obstacles persist.
In conclusion, the inception of RCEP signals the beginning of a new era of economic integration and economic interdependence in the Asia-Pacific region. Ideally, all other Asian states can and will join the huge economic bloc regardless of ideological and political differences, including North Korea and India. Hong Kong would surely benefit by joining RCEP, so as Taiwan. However, while the participation of Hong Kong in RCEP will easily get the blessing of its motherland, mainland China, the Taiwan case would remain far more difficult politically due to the ongoing tensions between the two Straits.
原刊於澳門新聞通訊社（MNA）網站，本社獲作者授權轉載。
張灼祥
黃冬柏
文灼非
關品方
何民傑
王文華
陳家偉
陳妙霞
張炳良
陳景祥
何日生