大陸會派解放軍來港？ Will China Send in PLA to Hong Kong?
本人認為除非事態嚴重至會引至中共倒台，不相信中共會放解放軍入城。… Continue reading
On 24 July at a press conference introducing China new defence white paper, when asked how the Defense Ministry would handle the situation in Hong Kong, a spokesman said only that “Article 14 of the garrison law has clear stipulations”
It is my humble opinion that unless the situation is so serious as to threaten the existence of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), I do not believe that the CCP will send the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into the city. If it happens, Hong Kong’s economy, stock market, property prices, etc will collapse catastrophically.
1. The mainland needs Hong Kong as an window to the world.
1.1 The RMB is still not freely convertible in the world. The internationalisation of the RMB needs Hong Kong.
1.2 As an independent customs territory, Hong Kong can import a lot of strategic and high tech materials that the mainland cannot import.
1.3 Hong Kong is a key city in the Greater Bay Area, which is very important part of the current 5 year plan for China. With the catastrophic collapse of Hong Kong, the Greater Bay Area plan is basically finished.
1.4 Hong Kong is the primary channel for financing by Chinese enterprises.
1.5 70% of foreign investment comes from Hong Kong.
2. There were rumour during the Umbrella Movement in 2014, CY Leung asked the central government to send the PLA to clear the protesters, and President Xi refused. The reason is not that Xi is benovelent, but that Chinese (red capital) companies already accounted for 56% of the Hong Kong stock market capitalisation. If the stock market falls sharply, Chinese losses will be the largest. Today’s Chinese capital in the Hong Kong stock market should be even larger.
3. Hong Kong is a channel of capital outflow for Mainland China, including for state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, the Red second generation, and even the Xi family. If the channel is blocked, it will seriously offend the vested interest groups which will take serious retaliatory actions.
4. A Mainlander who travels frequently between Hong Kong and Mainland said that all actions must wait until after the National Day in October, especially for the 70th anniversary this year.
5. The China-US trade war is long-lasting and recurring. The Mainland needs Hong Kong more in this environment.
6. On 29 July, the main text of the press conference of Hong Kong and Macau Office on Hong did not mention PLA.