近期的動靜包括菲律賓與日本將簽《相互准入協定》（RAA）、美日菲在南海的聯合軍演、中國人民解放軍在南海的聯合海空巡邏等。美國計劃在亞洲部署新的導彈系統、美國、英國和澳洲組成的三邊安全夥伴關係（AUKUS）考慮擴容，以及在華盛頓舉行的美日菲三方安全峰會，都指向了亞太地區地緣政治緊張局勢加劇。所有這些炫耀軍事力量的活動，都是非常令人擔憂的跡象，可能會破壞包括南海、台灣海峽和朝鮮半島在內的亞洲和平與穩定。
日本防衛政策 轉向自信自衛
首先，日本和菲律賓於4月11日達成了《互惠准入協議》，菲律賓軍隊和日本自衛隊將互訪，進行訓練和聯合演習。這對兩國來說都是具有里程碑意義的軍事協議，鞏固了日本在2022年與澳洲，以及2023年與英國簽署類似協議後的雙邊軍事關係。儘管二戰後日本《和平憲法》規定不得在海外駐紮武裝部隊，但日本在2009年為了遏制海盜，向非洲吉布提派出了自衛隊，此舉史無前例。隨後岸田政府在2022年12月修訂並通過了日本的《國家安全保障戰略》、《國家防衛戰略》和《防衛力整備計劃》。2022年通過的這三份文件可以被視為日本防衛政策的一個轉捩點，日本防衛政策從先前的和平主義原則，轉向了自信自衛和積極威懾的宗旨。近年來，日本增加了軍事和國防預算，以遏制其認為的軍事威脅，包括北韓和中國。
菲律賓駐美國大使羅慕爾德茲4月10日表示，日本自衛隊、美軍和菲律賓軍隊將定期舉行海軍演習，並補充說，美國和日本都是菲律賓最親密的盟友。鑑於菲律賓和中國之間最近在南海一些島嶼上持續存在的爭端，羅慕爾德茲的言論可以被解讀為菲律賓對所謂「中國威脅」的看法，馬尼拉認為這種威脅是「真實存在的」。
近幾個月來，中國海警船對試圖向馬德雷山艦上的海軍陸戰隊提供補給的菲律賓船隻使用了高壓水炮，這艘懸掛菲律賓國旗的二戰時期登陸艦於1999年被菲律賓擱淺，生鏽擱淺的艦身，是菲律賓領土主張的象徵，但它始終是中國軍方的眼中釘。據報道，中國在1995年奪取了美濟礁，此舉促使菲律賓將馬德雷山艦擱淺在仁愛礁，兩個島嶼距離菲律賓專屬經濟區巴拉望島均不到200海里。
聯合海軍演習 聲明針對中國
其次，4月7日，美國、澳洲、日本、菲律賓在菲律賓專屬經濟區首次聯合進行海軍演習，美國海軍瀕海戰鬥艦莫比爾號、澳洲護衛艦瓦拉蒙加號等參加。演習內容包括反潛訓練和海軍巡邏等。這次聯合軍演聲稱要維護「航行和自由飛行」，並「加強地區和國際合作，支持自由開放的印太地區」。4個國家的聯合聲明補充說，他們「重申了關於2016年南海仲裁裁決作為對爭端各方具有法律約束力的最終決定的立場」。事實上，中國拒絕了南海仲裁的裁決，但聯合聲明似乎至少是隱晦地針對中國。
第三，解放軍於4月7日在南海進行海空聯合巡邏，宣稱「一切攪局南海、製造熱點的軍事活動盡在掌握」。《解放軍報》發表評論文章稱，「菲律賓拉攏域外國家介入南海事務，繼續生事生亂，中方保持極大的善意和克制，但不等於會無限縱容。」顯然，中方對涉及這4個國家的軍事演習正式發出警告。
就在美國、澳洲、日本、菲律賓舉行海軍演習的3天前，美國海軍為美國太平洋艦隊新任司令舉行了宣誓就職儀式，邀請台灣海軍司令唐華出席。美軍印太司令部司令阿奎利諾點名歡迎唐華觀禮。阿奎利諾4月9日在悉尼洛伊研究所智庫發講話時表示，中國針對菲律賓的行動，特別是在仁愛礁的行動，是「危險、非法且破壞本區域穩定的」。他甚至說，中國的行動在其他地區亦可看到，旨在「想單方面透過武力，奪取領土空間」。阿奎利諾的言論可視為美軍對中國的看法。
美國部署導彈 AUKUS要擴容
第四，4月8日，據報道，美國太平洋陸軍司令弗林上將在南韓透露，將在亞太地區部署新型飛彈發射系統，此舉似乎是針對北韓和中國。中國外交部回應稱，中國不與其他國家競爭軍事力量，奉行防禦性國防政策。然而，美國在亞洲部署飛彈系統，包括使用「標準六型」防空導彈和「戰斧」巡航導彈，證明了華盛頓對北韓和中國軍事威脅的看法。
第五，4月10日，有報告指出，AUKUS（澳洲、英國和美國之間的三邊安全夥伴關係）可能會擴大到加拿大和日本。鑑於五眼聯盟包括加拿大、美國、英國、澳洲和紐西蘭，AUKUS可能擴大規模，將日本和加拿大納入其保護範圍，這意味着這兩個安全組織的合併。AUKUS已經實施了其「第一支柱」計劃，該計劃支持澳洲盡快採購常規武裝核動力潛艇。2023年3月，這三個國家宣布了澳洲獲得核動力潛艇的「最佳途徑」，同時設定「最高的核不擴散標準」。在「第二支柱」中，三國目標是保護敏感技術，並在極音速武器、量子運算、人工智慧、電子戰、水下能力等高科技領域進行合作。AUKUS擴大到加拿大和日本，自然會加劇亞太地區的地緣政治緊張局勢，儘管它誓言要維持「最高的核不擴散標準」。
美日菲峰會舉行 中國反應負面
第六，首屆美日菲三邊峰會於4月11日在華盛頓舉行，美國總統拜登、日本首相岸田文雄和菲律賓總統小馬可斯會晤，達成70項協議，主要涉及安全和防務。1960年的《美日安保條約》升級為2025年設立聯合作戰司令部，加強相互協調，改革指揮結構與內容。拜登總統告訴岸田和小馬可斯，美國對日本和菲律賓的防務承諾「如龬鐵般堅定」。峰會也達成了建立呂宋經濟走廊的協議，此舉被國際傳媒解讀為對抗中國的一帶一路倡議。此次峰會並未點名中國，但被廣泛解讀為三國共享軍事技術、達成軍事安全條約、加強軍事安全溝通與協調的措施。小馬可斯比他的前任杜特爾特更加親美，而杜特爾特與中國的關係較友好──這表明菲律賓總統對美國和中國的政治傾向，是影響和動搖馬尼拉、華盛頓和北京之間軍事安全關係的最重要因素。
中國對三國峰會反應負面。外交部發言人毛寧表示，北京「堅決反對相關國家操弄集團政治，堅決反對任何挑起和激化矛盾、損害他國戰略安全和利益的做法」。
然而，在亞太地區緊張局勢加劇的背景下，印度總理莫迪強調雙方透過外交對話改善雙邊關係的重要性，中印關係出現積極基調。他說，印度和中國急需要解決兩國曠日持久的邊界問題，通過外交和軍事接觸恢復和平。中印兩國外交官於2024年3月在北京召開第29次會晤，一致同意雙方必須保持外交和軍事接觸，並堅持對話精神。就在印度大選前一周，莫迪強調和平，可能會吸引印度選民支持他的政黨。希望在印度反華氣氛日益濃厚的情況下，印度和中國都能堅持尋找建設性解決方案，儘管該國一些政治人物和大眾傳體對中國表現出非常強硬和負面的態度。
另一邊廂，中國和菲律賓之間的安全關係仍然不穩定。2023年4月，《馬尼拉時報》報道，中方提出了一些解決南海島嶼領土爭議的方案，但菲方拒絕進一步考慮，因為提出的一些方案與菲國主權利益相悖。不過，希望雙方能夠避免有爭議的「高層政治」問題，特別是領土爭端，而將重點放在經濟實用主義和文化、教育、社會交流和旅遊上。否則，任何對民族主義的過度強調，都可能將兩國推向無休止曠日耗時的領土爭端，以及不必要的軍事衝突局面。
地緣政治緊張 中朝必進一步鞏固
在亞洲地緣政治緊張局勢加劇的背景下，中朝關係必然進一步鞏固。中國全國人大委員長趙樂際4月12日對平壤進行了為期三天的訪問，加強了北京與平壤之間的雙邊關係，同時為國家主席習近平與北韓最高領導人金正恩今年稍後可能舉行的會晤作準備。倘若如此，那麼最近持續鞏固的以美國為首的安全聯盟，可能會導致中國和北韓的下意識反應。
總之，美國、菲律賓、日本和美國其他盟友的聯合軍演，以及這些國家簽訂最新的安全協定，已經使地緣政治緊張局勢加劇到前所未有的程度，已引起中國的不安和不舒服的反應。近期，拜登與習近平的電話對話似乎突然被烏雲籠罩，未來充滿不確定性，尤其是面對即將到來的美國總統大選。在地緣政治的研究和分析中，最重要的問題仍然是相互的認知和相應的反應。如果中國與鄰國北韓均被視為安全和軍事的「威脅」，那麼以美國為首以意識形態驅動的安全聯盟，可以說是一種自然的反應；如果中國和北韓毫無疑問被視為軍事和安全威脅，那麼以美國為首的盟友最近及正在進行的軍事安全反應，可能會導致北京和平壤以鞏固中朝關係的形式作出相應反應，從而促使亞太地區未來幾年陷入軍事高度不穩定、地緣政治不確定性和極具挑戰的安全局勢。
Increasing geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region
The most recent moves involving the Reciprocal Access Agreement between the Philippines and Japan, the joint military exercise of US-Japan-Philippines in South China Sea, the joint naval and air patrol of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in the South China Sea, the US plan to station a new missile system in Asia, the expansion of AUKUS (a trilateral security partnership composed of Australia, the UK, and the US), and the US-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Security Summit in Washington have all pointed to the increasing geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region. All these military muscle-flexing activities are very worrying signs that may undermine the peace and stability of Asia, including the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the Korean Peninsula.
First, Japan and the Philippines, on April 11, reached the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), in which the Philippine forces will visit Japan for training and joint exercises, and vice versa. This is a landmark military agreement for both countries, cementing their bilateral military relations after Japan signed a similar agreement with Australia in 2022 and with the United Kingdom in 2023. Although the Japanese constitution after the Second World War stated that there should not be armed forces to be stationed in overseas countries, Japan in 2009 sent its Self-Defence Force (SDF) to Djibouti in Africa for the sake of curbing pirates—an unprecedented action followed by the Kishida government’s updating and approval of Japan’s national security strategy, national defence strategy, and defence buildup programme in December 2022. These three documents approved in 2022 could be seen as a turning point in Japan’s defence policy, which turned from the previous principle of pacifism to perhaps the tenet of assertive self-defence and active deterrence. In recent years, Japan has increased its military and defence budget to deter its perceived military threats, including North Korea and China.
The Philippines Ambassador to the US, Jose Manuel Romualdez, said on April 10 that the Japanese SDF, US forces, and the Philippine force would regularly conduct naval drills, adding that both the US and Japan are the closest allies of the Philippines. Given the recent and ongoing disputes between the Philippines and China over some of the islands in the South China Sea, Romualdez’s remarks can be interpreted as the Philippine perception of the so-called “China threat” that, according to Manila, is “real.”
In recent months, the Chinese coastguard vessels have used water cannons against the Philippine boats that attempted to provide supplies to the marines on the Sierra Madre, a Second World War-era ship that was marooned by the Philippines in 1999 and that carried the Philippine flag. The rusty and wrecked ship was a symbol of the territorial claims made by the Philippines, but it remains a thorn in the eyes of the Chinese military. It was reported that China in 1995 seized the Mischief Reef, an action that promoted the Philippines to run the Sierra Madre aground at the Second Thomas Shaol, with the locations of both islands less than 200 nautical miles from Palwan, which is an exclusive economic zone of the Philippines.
Second, on April 7, the US, Australia, Japan, and the Philippines conducted naval drills together for the first time in the Philippine exclusive economic zone, involving the US combat ship USS mobile (LCS-26), the Australian frigate HMAS Warramunga (FFH152), the Philippine frigate BRP Antonia Luna (FF151), and the Japanese guided-missile destroyer JS Akebono (DD108). The content of the drills included anti-submarine training and naval patrol. This joint military exercise claimed to uphold “the freedom of navigation and overflight” and to “strengthen support and international cooperation to support a free and open Indo-Pacific.” The joint statement of the four nations added that they “reaffirm the position regarding the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Award as a final and legally binding decision on the parties to the dispute.” Indeed, China rejected the decision of the tribunal, but the joint statement appeared to target at China at least implicitly.
Third, as such, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted its joint naval and air patrol on April 7 in the South China Sea, declaring that it “grasped all the military organisations and activities that stir up the situation and hot spots in the South Sea (Ming Pao, April 8, 2024).” The Liberation Army Daily said that the Philippines pulled other external countries into the affairs of the South Sea, that it created troubles, and that China has shown a great deal of “kind intentions and restraint,” but “this does not mean that the situation will be spoiled and tolerated endlessly.” Clearly, the Chinese side formally warned about the military drills that involved the four nations.
Just three days before the naval drills conducted by the US, Australia, Japan, and the Philippines, the US Navy held a swearing-in ceremony for the new commander of the US Pacific Fleet, an event that invited the Taiwan naval commander Tang Hua to attend. He was welcomed by US Indo-Pacific Command Commander John C. Aquilino. Aquilino said in his address to Sydney’s Lowy Institute on April 9 that China’s actions against the Philippines, especially in Second Thomas Shaol, were “dangerous, illegal, and they are destabilising the region (Reuters, April 9, 2024).” He even added that China’s action could be seen in other places and that it is “trying to gain territorial space unilaterally through force.” The remarks made by Aquilino could be seen as the US military’s perception of China.
Fourth, on April 8, it was reported that US Army Pacific Commander General Charles Flynn revealed in South Korea the deployment of a new missile launch system in the Asia-Pacific region, a move that appeared to aim at North Korea and China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded by saying that China does not compete with other nations in military power and that it pursues a defensive national defence policy. However, the US deployment of its missile system, including the use of the Standard Missile 6 interceptor and the maritime-strike Tomahawk, in Asia is a testimony to Washington’s perception of the military threats from North Korea and China.
Fifth, on April 10, it was reported that AUKUS – a trilateral security partnership between Australia, United Kingdom (UK) and US – will likely be expanded to embrace Canada and Japan. Given that the Five Eyes include Canada, US, UK, Australia and New Zealand, the possible expansion of AUKUS to include Japan and Canada into its umbrella means the consolidation of the two security organizations. AUKUS has conducted its Pillar One programme, in which Australia is supported to acquire conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines as soon as possible. In March 2023, the three nations announced an “optimal pathway” to achieving nuclear-powered submarine capability while setting “the highest non-proliferation standard.” In Pillar Two, the three nations aim to protect sensitive technologies and cooperate in the areas of quantum, Artificial Intelligence, and autonomy, hypersonics and counter-hypersonics, electronic warfare, undersea warfare, and cybersecurity networks. The expansion of AUKUS to embrace Canada and Japan will naturally heighten the geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, although it vows to maintain “the highest non-proliferation standard.”
Sixth, the first trilateral US-Japan-Philippines Summit was held in Washington on April 11, during which President Joe Biden, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. met and came up with seventy agreements, mostly on security and defence affairs. The 1960 US-Japan Security Treaty was upgraded by having Joint Operation Command in 2025, strengthening mutual coordination, reforming the command structure and content. President Biden told Kishida and Marcos that the US defence commitment to Japan and the Philippines are “ironclad.” The Summit also reached an agreement to set up the Luzon Economic Corridor – a move that was interpreted by the international media as countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Without mentioning China in name, the Summit has been widely interpreted as a move by the three nations to share military technology, form a military and security pact, and to improve their military and security communication and coordination. President Marcos is far more pro-US than his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte, whose relations with China were more cordial – an indication that the Philippine President’s political orientation toward US and China is the most important shaper affecting and oscillating the military-security relations between Manila, Washington, and Beijing.
China has reacted to the Summit negatively: its Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said Beijing “firmly opposes the relevant countries manipulating bloc politics, and firmly opposed any behaviour that provokes or lays plans for opposition and hurts other countries’ strategic security and interests.”
Amid the heightening tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, however, a positive tone of Sino-Indian relations was heard when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized the importance of both sides to improve bilateral relations through diplomatic dialogue. He said: “It is my belief that we need to urgently address the prolonged situation on our borders so that the abnormality in our bilateral interactions can be put behind us.” Diplomats from both India and China convened the 29th meeting in Beijing in March 2024, agreeing with the principle that both sides must maintain diplomatic and military communications and stick to their spirit of discussions. Just a week prior to the Indian elections, Modi’s emphasis on peace may appeal to the Indian voters for their support of his party. Hopefully, both India and China will persist in their search for construction solutions amid an increasingly anti-China climate in India, where some politicians and mass media appear to be very hawkish and negative towards China.
Still, the security relations between China and the Philippines remain rocky. In April 2023, Manila Times reported that the Chinese side prepared some solutions to solve the territorial disputes over the islands in South China Sea, but the Philippine side refused to consider further as some proposed solutions ran counter to the sovereignty interest of the Philippines. However, it is hoped that both sides can avoid the controversial “high politics” issues, notably territorial disputes, but instead focusing on economic pragmatism and cultural, educational, social exchange and tourism. Otherwise, any overemphasis on nationalism would likely propel the two nations toward a scenario of endless but time-consuming territorial disputes and unnecessary military conflicts.
During the increasing geopolitical tensions in Asia, the relations between China and North Korea are bound to be consolidated. Zhao Leji, the chairman of the Chinese National People’s Congress, visited Pyongyang on a three-day visit on April 12, strengthening the bilateral relations between Beijing and Pyongyang while preparing for a possible meeting later this year between President Xi Jinping and North Korean counterpart Kim Jong-un. If so, the recent and ongoing consolidation of the US-led security alliance is perhaps leading to a kneejerk reaction from China and North Korea.
In conclusion, the most recent and ongoing developments of the military drills and security pacts between the US, Philippines, Japan, and other US allies have already heightened geopolitical tensions to an unprecedented degree, causing uneasiness and uncomfortable responses from China. The recent phone dialogue between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping appeared to be suddenly shrouded with dark clouds and uncertain future, especially in the face of the forthcoming US presidential election. In the study and analysis of geopolitics, the most important problems remain mutual perceptions and corresponding reactions. If China has already been perceived as a security and military “threat,” together with its neighbour North Korea, the ideologically driven security alliance led by the US is arguably a natural response. If China and North Korea are firmly perceived as military and security threats, then the recent and ongoing military and security responses from the US-led allies will likely lead to a corresponding response from Beijing and Pyongyang in the form of consolidating the Beijing-Pyongyang relations, thereby propelling the Asia-Pacific region to a highly militarily unstable, geopolitically uncertain, and very challenging security situation in the coming years.
原刊於澳門新聞通訊社（MNA）網站，本社獲作者授權轉載。
趙靈敏
尹瑞麟
張翠容
黃錦輝
李志強
周光蓁
周萱
常霖法師
蔡國光
黃珍妮
譚新強
車品覺